1. The Villa Heist: Rogers & Emery's Masterclass
Are match outcomes sometimes deceive? That is the question. Villa's run of victories was extended versus Manchester United, but so did the nagging doubts. Statistically, they were inferior by several measures – a lower shot count (12-15), a smaller share of the ball (43-57), a scarcity of clear opportunities (2-3). Once again, the victory was by a narrow margin. In keeping with form, the xG metric was unimpressed: according to data United were narrowly ahead 1.31-1.02. Yet the reality is games are decided on the pitch, not on spreadsheets. They are won by cohesive units, astute coaching and individual talent – and Villa possess each ingredient. Villa's emerging star may be their only star, but he is performing like Father Christmas. The Villa manager is shrewd, seasoned, five years ahead of the United boss. If Rogers profited from Leny Yoro’s naivety, that was probably because the manager identified that his opponent was uncomfortable, and instructed his winger to start wide, drive inside and cause him problems. Talent and management, in perfect harmony.
2. The Amorim Conundrum: Still Searching for Answers
When Manchester United beat Brighton 4-2 last month, their fans felt optimism return. They had won three league games on the bounce for the first time under their manager. They ascended to fourth. And the wins were solid results – over Brighton (a side they often struggle against), Liverpool (away!) and Sunderland (at Old Trafford, facing a team fresh from the Championship, but still – an untroubled victory). Their keeper provided stability, their forward line sparked and optimism was growing. But then United slipped into a slump. Over the next eight fixtures, only two victories, six missed opportunities. Against Aston Villa they were superior for large periods without ever looking like winning. Yes, the Brazilian scored a fine effort, but he also blazed over a simple chance. Yes, United were hit by fitness issues (to influential figures), but they gave away cheap scores. Since his arrival in England, the manager has yet to solve how to win consistently.
3. Arteta's Men Win Ugly to Return to the Summit
It was an evening fixture on the festive weekend but a noticeable shortage of fluency in the attacking areas made for a sobering evening. For Everton, the issue was expected with key attackers absent, and Jack Grealish struggling to lift an entire team single-handedly. In many respects it is astonishing that Everton were in fifth place in the table two weeks earlier given they have played the whole campaign without a proven goalscorer. For Arsenal and the Spanish coach, while he savoured a deserved win and ascending to the summit of the table, the deficiency should be just as worrying given their title aspirations in the Premier League. Arteta insisted that positive results will inevitably be more emphatic with dedication and persistence. But it is a little early in the season for a team that can start with world-class talents, while leaving quality substitutes on the bench, to be needing to win ugly.
4. Guardiola’s Festive City Investigations
On Christmas Day Pep Guardiola will check the weights to ensure his Manchester City players have not indulged too much. He revealed his squad requested to enjoy a break after their latest win but he refused because their display lacked quality. So they will recuperate, work for those who didn't feature, and following a short break, then brief training for the Nottingham Forest game. He explained how improvements can be made. “My strength is deciphering what happens in the game, where are the spaces – if the players were in optimal spots, we could be more potent.” Pep also intends to enjoy a rest: “I will be on vacation with the family and champagne. I'm going to Barcelona – I recommend it, the food is excellent.”
5. A Costly Goal: Isak's Injury Mars Liverpool Win
Alexander Isak’s goal at Tottenham felt, for a fleeting moment, like an arrival. This was the very purpose Liverpool invested heavily for him to do, to decide close contests with his intelligent runs and finishing ability, and the assurance with which he clipped in from an incisive ball boded superbly. So the image of him leaving immediately, following a rash challenge, was a huge concern for the Liverpool manager and disappointing for the spectator who would like to see a top-class forward perform at his best again. There are fears Isak has picked up a serious leg injury and he could be in for a lengthy period on the sidelines. It would be a major blow with Slot’s team having quietly moved into the upper echelons, putting together a six-game unbeaten run bookended by Isak’s maiden league strikes in their colours. Their campaign trajectory appear tied up with those of their prize asset.
6. Penalty Debate Rages After Newcastle Draw
Managers often complain about controversial calls as a means of deflecting media attention from matters they would prefer were not talked about. The significant tally Newcastle have failed to secure from leading situations this season seems a case in point. Eddie Howe certainly did not seem particularly eager to mention that costly trend following his side’s inability to hold onto a 2-0 lead against Chelsea in a game they had to settle for a point in. Yet the Magpies' boss was surely correct to highlight a decision made by the match officials not to award his team a penalty following a clear obstruction on Anthony Gordon. With the score then 2-1, a 12-yard award could have swung the momentum. Was the decision to offer the opposing player the benefit of considerable doubt informed by Gordon’s reputation for being expert at winning penalties and sometimes going down too easily? Analysis from a former England striker was revealing. “He anticipates the contact,” was the analysis. “He knows the challenge is coming and he's ready. I think he intends to hit the deck. But the nature of the contact there … it's more than just defending.”
7. A 99.17% Certainty
Brentford’s maiden victory on the road this season spelled joy for their manager. Instead of reveling in the win, Andrews sympathised with Wolves, the club he joined at 16. “My formative years were here,” he said. Wolves’ situation is increasingly desperate; statistical models state – possibly kindly – their probability of going down at virtually certain, leaving only pride at stake beyond pride. A senior professional brutally spelled out|bluntly outlined|frankly
