A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
